November: The Housing Market’s Post-Spike Slump

After an early-fall surge in September and October, residential real estate sales experienced a sharp reversal in November, tumbling in 38 out of 40 major U.S. markets. This broad decline marks a significant shift, as the housing market settles into a period of slower activity driven by persistently high prices and elevated mortgage rates.

The November Downturn: Key Statistics

Nationwide, sales of new and existing single-family homes and condos were down 8.6% in November 2025 compared to the previous year. This sharp drop followed an unseasonably active early fall where sales had seen a temporary boost, likely as some buyers tried to take advantage of a brief dip in mortgage rates.

Only two of the 40 markets tracked by Homes.com saw an annual increase in sales for November:

• Cleveland, with a 0.8% increase.
• Phoenix, with a 0.6% increase.
• Austin, TX with a -19.2% decrease.

Understanding the Volatility

The recent volatility underscores a market grappling with challenging affordability conditions. The early-fall spike was largely attributed to buyers responding to lower mortgage rates and increased inventory, but these improvements were not enough to sustain the momentum.

• Mortgage Rate Lock-In: Many existing homeowners are reluctant to sell because they are locked into low mortgage rates secured years ago, and moving would mean taking on a new loan at a much higher current rate (often above 6%). This dynamic keeps available housing inventory low, even as demand fluctuates.
• Affordability Strain: Despite some price moderation in certain areas, the median home price remains historically high. The combination of elevated prices and high borrowing costs continues to price many would-be buyers out of the market.
• Buyer Caution: With economic uncertainty and homes taking longer to sell (a median of 53 days in November 2025), buyers are taking more time to decide, which has reduced urgency and increased buyer negotiating power.

The Road Ahead

Experts suggest this is a normalization period for the market, not a crash. While sales activity is currently muted, a potential drop in mortgage rates in 2026, as forecasted by some economists, could unlock significant pent-up demand and help stabilize the market. For now, the market is characterized by a delicate balance, where pricing strategy is more crucial than ever for sellers hoping to close a deal.

Is it time to buy in Austin? Contact the ROCK Properties Team. We can help you find a bargain.